Election Predictions

It's the final day before the U.S. Presidential Election.

We've heard all the back and forth about each candidate.

We've heard all the political discourse - right vs. left - Obama vs. Romney

Now, let's hear your prediction of what you think will be the final outcome - by the numbers.

Rules: No playing politics - we've already beat that horse to death in numerous other threads

NO COMMENTS - POST NUMBERS ONLY! Percentage and Electoral College

A candidate must have 270 Electoral votes to win.

If you need help with Electoral College, go here: http://www.270towin.com/



Let's have some fun and see who get's closest to what actually happens.

Everyone is invited to play!


Remember - post numbers only!


I'll start:

Vote percentage: Romney 53% - Obama 47%
Electoral College: Romney 308 - Obama 230




RKS

Oh good! Another thread about US politics. That makes eleven now.

Obama will win. Yes, the polls say they are neck and neck. BUT, the current president has to have the advantage in such situations as, when people finally get to the polls, the undecided voters will more often than not choose the option where they know what they are getting. "Better the devil you know", so to speak.

Oh good! Another thread about US politics. That makes eleven now.

they should all be merged to one

Obama.

Electoral vote total

Low end: 294

Best guess (range): 303-307

High end: 332

Absolute devastating shock: 277 -- but still enough to win.

Popular vote? Really doesn't matter, so I haven't spent much time considering it. But I have shifted to believing Obama will win the popular vote, too.

Edit: If I were doing this now (late Monday, rather than early Monday), with the latest numbers, it would break this way --> Upper limit of best-guess range climbs to 315, but my high-end estimate drops to 326. I expect I'll be ready to tweak again in the early morning, but the differences shouldn't be significant.

Last edited by elvissessions on Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:20 am, edited 4 times in total.

So far 3 people can't obey the rules.

poormadpeter
Elvisgirl
R2-D2


If you don't want to play - don't post. How hard is it?



Now back on topic.




RKS

From an outsider's perspective:

Vote percentage: Romney 52% - Obama 48%
Electoral College: Romney 300 - Obama 238

Romney is winning among independents, so this points to a majority of the dead heats tipping his way.

So far 3 people can't obey the rules.

poormadpeter
Elvisgirl
R2-D2


If you don't want to play - don't post. How hard is it?



Now back on topic.




RKS

It is impossible for non-USA posters to suggest numbers, as we don;t necessarily have the numbers of how your electoral system works - any more than you have the knowledge of ours.

So far 3 people can't obey the rules.

poormadpeter
Elvisgirl
R2-D2


If you don't want to play - don't post. How hard is it?



Now back on topic.




RKS

if you obey all the rules, you miss all the fun

Vote percentage: Romney 52.5% - Obama 46% - others 1.5%
Electoral College: Romney 300 - Obama 238

Last edited by Blue River on Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

Obama.

290 + electoral college

52% to 48% for the President

Obama: 332 EVs 50.8%
Romney: 206 EVs. 47.3%

Sorry, poormadpeter, but why should your ignorance of Australian politics exclude me from posting a prediction about the election? At least I followed the rules.

I actually find it fascinating to study numerous political systems. The similarities and patterns taken by the left and right, liberal and conservative are intriguing. It lets you see the bigger picture. And so:

Vote percentage: Romney 52% - Obama 48%
Electoral College: Romney 300 - Obama 238

Vote percentage: Romney 50.25% - Obama 49.75%
Electoral College: Obama 294 - Romney 244

Obama: 332 EVs 50.8%
Romney: 206 EVs. 47.3%

Actual Results:
Obama: 332 EVs 50.5%
Romney 206 EVs 48.0%

I underestimated Romney by a bit, but not too shabby.

Actual Results:
Obama... 50.5%
Romney... 48.0%

At least I predicted part of it right.

...others 1.5%

Actual Results:
Obama... 50.5%
Romney... 48.0%

At least I predicted part of it right.

...others 1.5%

It is interesting if you think about it.

All of the people who "made a statement" by trying to support a third party by voting for either Perot in 92 or 96, or Nader in 2000, succeeded only in showing the electorate that playing games with your vote can easily elect the other guy. Third party support is now as low as it's ever been, but depending on how the GOP handles itself going forward, we may see the emergence of one.

If the Republican establishment thinks it can easily shove social conservatives to try to expand it's appeal with women and younger voters, it's easy to imagine socially conservative third party carrying the entirety of the south next election.

It's pretty clear to all concerned that the conservative party is becoming irrelevant in the America of 2012.

President Obama just got certified as the winner of Florida, to go along with Ohio and several other states predicted for Romney. His victory included both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

Those who espouse the right-wing party line will need to seriously re-think who they are, and what they represent, if they are to attract new voters.

A political party that relies primarily on an aging population of white males and ignores the concerns of minorities and women cannot long survive.

MT

A political party that relies primarily on an aging population of white males and ignores the concerns of minorities and women cannot long survive.

Do you happen to know of any political party that fits the bill ?

It's pretty clear to all concerned that the conservative party is becoming irrelevant in the America of 2012...
Those who espouse the right-wing party line will need to seriously re-think who they are, and what they represent, if they are to attract new voters.

Yeah, whatever. This is what's "pretty clear to all concerned" -

Since the passing of Franklin D. Roosevelt the Presidential election results have gone in cycles and history tells us it will probably continue to do so.

1948 - Democrat
1952 - Republican
1956 - Republican
1960 - Democrat
1964 - Democrat
1968 - Republican
1972 - Republican
1976 - Democrat
1980 - Republican
1984 - Republican
1988 - Republican
After George H. W. Bush was elected in '88, I remember all the chatter on the political talk shows (radio & tv) questioning what was wrong with the Democratic Party and how they've lost touch with the American people and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah... and then along came Bill Clinton to win two consecutive terms.
1992 - Democrat
1996 - Democrat
2000 - Republican
2004 - Republican
2008 - Democrat
2012 - Democrat
2016 - ?? Only time and personalities will tell...

This thread clearly reveals the alternate universe many Republicans live in. They listen to FOX NEWS and drink the cool aide they serve up -- listening to and worse yet believing the likes of Bill O'Riley, Glen Beck and Sean Hannity. This is NOT American today and most certainly not the America of tomorrow.

MT

As I step back and survey the entire situation from just before the first debate to election day, I think the factor that tipped this incredibly close election was Hurricane Sandy.

This thread clearly reveals the alternate universe many Republicans live in. They listen to FOX NEWS and drink the cool aide they serve up -- listening to and worse yet believing the likes of Bill O'Riley, Glen Beck and Sean Hannity. This is NOT American today and most certainly not the America of tomorrow.

MT

Case in point...

It's pretty clear to all concerned that the conservative party is becoming irrelevant in the America of 2012...
Those who espouse the right-wing party line will need to seriously re-think who they are, and what they represent, if they are to attract new voters.

Yeah, whatever.

Classless, to the end. Be proud.

And enjoy four more years of the great President Barack H. Obama.

I will!