Off Topic Messages

Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:53 pm

It's the final day before the U.S. Presidential Election.

We've heard all the back and forth about each candidate.

We've heard all the political discourse - right vs. left - Obama vs. Romney

Now, let's hear your prediction of what you think will be the final outcome - by the numbers.

Rules: No playing politics - we've already beat that horse to death in numerous other threads

NO COMMENTS - POST NUMBERS ONLY! Percentage and Electoral College


A candidate must have 270 Electoral votes to win.

If you need help with Electoral College, go here: http://www.270towin.com/



Let's have some fun and see who get's closest to what actually happens.

Everyone is invited to play!


Remember - post numbers only!


I'll start:

Vote percentage: Romney 53% - Obama 47%
Electoral College: Romney 308 - Obama 230





RKS

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:09 pm

Oh good! Another thread about US politics. That makes eleven now.

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:11 pm

Obama will win. Yes, the polls say they are neck and neck. BUT, the current president has to have the advantage in such situations as, when people finally get to the polls, the undecided voters will more often than not choose the option where they know what they are getting. "Better the devil you know", so to speak.

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:12 pm

R2-D2 wrote:Oh good! Another thread about US politics. That makes eleven now.

they should all be merged to one

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:17 pm

Obama.

Electoral vote total

Low end: 294

Best guess (range): 303-307

High end: 332

Absolute devastating shock: 277 -- but still enough to win.

Popular vote? Really doesn't matter, so I haven't spent much time considering it. But I have shifted to believing Obama will win the popular vote, too.

Edit: If I were doing this now (late Monday, rather than early Monday), with the latest numbers, it would break this way --> Upper limit of best-guess range climbs to 315, but my high-end estimate drops to 326. I expect I'll be ready to tweak again in the early morning, but the differences shouldn't be significant.
Last edited by elvissessions on Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:20 am, edited 4 times in total.

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:59 pm

So far 3 people can't obey the rules.

poormadpeter
Elvisgirl
R2-D2



If you don't want to play - don't post. How hard is it?



Now back on topic.




RKS

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:11 pm

From an outsider's perspective:

Vote percentage: Romney 52% - Obama 48%
Electoral College: Romney 300 - Obama 238

Romney is winning among independents, so this points to a majority of the dead heats tipping his way.

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:14 pm

RKSNASHVILLE wrote:So far 3 people can't obey the rules.

poormadpeter
Elvisgirl
R2-D2



If you don't want to play - don't post. How hard is it?



Now back on topic.




RKS


It is impossible for non-USA posters to suggest numbers, as we don;t necessarily have the numbers of how your electoral system works - any more than you have the knowledge of ours.

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:29 am

RKSNASHVILLE wrote:So far 3 people can't obey the rules.

poormadpeter
Elvisgirl
R2-D2



If you don't want to play - don't post. How hard is it?



Now back on topic.




RKS

if you obey all the rules, you miss all the fun

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:41 am

Vote percentage: Romney 52.5% - Obama 46% - others 1.5%
Electoral College: Romney 300 - Obama 238
Last edited by Blue River on Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:31 am

Obama.

290 + electoral college

52% to 48% for the President

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:04 am

Obama: 332 EVs 50.8%
Romney: 206 EVs. 47.3%

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:34 am

Sorry, poormadpeter, but why should your ignorance of Australian politics exclude me from posting a prediction about the election? At least I followed the rules.

I actually find it fascinating to study numerous political systems. The similarities and patterns taken by the left and right, liberal and conservative are intriguing. It lets you see the bigger picture. And so:

Vote percentage: Romney 52% - Obama 48%
Electoral College: Romney 300 - Obama 238

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:56 am

Vote percentage: Romney 50.25% - Obama 49.75%
Electoral College: Obama 294 - Romney 244

Re: Election Predictions

Fri Nov 09, 2012 6:42 pm

KingOfTheJungle wrote:Obama: 332 EVs 50.8%
Romney: 206 EVs. 47.3%


Actual Results:
Obama: 332 EVs 50.5%
Romney 206 EVs 48.0%

I underestimated Romney by a bit, but not too shabby.

Re: Election Predictions

Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:21 pm

KingOfTheJungle wrote:Actual Results:
Obama... 50.5%
Romney... 48.0%

At least I predicted part of it right. smt179
Blue River wrote:...others 1.5%

Re: Election Predictions

Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:55 pm

Blue River wrote:
KingOfTheJungle wrote:Actual Results:
Obama... 50.5%
Romney... 48.0%

At least I predicted part of it right. smt179
Blue River wrote:...others 1.5%


It is interesting if you think about it.

All of the people who "made a statement" by trying to support a third party by voting for either Perot in 92 or 96, or Nader in 2000, succeeded only in showing the electorate that playing games with your vote can easily elect the other guy. Third party support is now as low as it's ever been, but depending on how the GOP handles itself going forward, we may see the emergence of one.

If the Republican establishment thinks it can easily shove social conservatives to try to expand it's appeal with women and younger voters, it's easy to imagine socially conservative third party carrying the entirety of the south next election.

Re: Election Predictions

Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:20 pm

It's pretty clear to all concerned that the conservative party is becoming irrelevant in the America of 2012.

President Obama just got certified as the winner of Florida, to go along with Ohio and several other states predicted for Romney. His victory included both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

Those who espouse the right-wing party line will need to seriously re-think who they are, and what they represent, if they are to attract new voters.

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 12, 2012 6:11 pm

A political party that relies primarily on an aging population of white males and ignores the concerns of minorities and women cannot long survive.

MT

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 12, 2012 6:37 pm

MysteryTrain wrote:A political party that relies primarily on an aging population of white males and ignores the concerns of minorities and women cannot long survive.


Do you happen to know of any political party that fits the bill ?

Re: Election Predictions

Mon Nov 12, 2012 7:16 pm

drjohncarpenter wrote:It's pretty clear to all concerned that the conservative party is becoming irrelevant in the America of 2012...
Those who espouse the right-wing party line will need to seriously re-think who they are, and what they represent, if they are to attract new voters.

Yeah, whatever. This is what's "pretty clear to all concerned" -

Since the passing of Franklin D. Roosevelt the Presidential election results have gone in cycles and history tells us it will probably continue to do so.

1948 - Democrat
1952 - Republican
1956 - Republican
1960 - Democrat
1964 - Democrat
1968 - Republican
1972 - Republican
1976 - Democrat
1980 - Republican
1984 - Republican
1988 - Republican
After George H. W. Bush was elected in '88, I remember all the chatter on the political talk shows (radio & tv) questioning what was wrong with the Democratic Party and how they've lost touch with the American people and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah... and then along came Bill Clinton to win two consecutive terms.
1992 - Democrat
1996 - Democrat
2000 - Republican
2004 - Republican
2008 - Democrat
2012 - Democrat
2016 - ?? Only time and personalities will tell...

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:24 am

This thread clearly reveals the alternate universe many Republicans live in. They listen to FOX NEWS and drink the cool aide they serve up -- listening to and worse yet believing the likes of Bill O'Riley, Glen Beck and Sean Hannity. This is NOT American today and most certainly not the America of tomorrow.

MT

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:01 am

As I step back and survey the entire situation from just before the first debate to election day, I think the factor that tipped this incredibly close election was Hurricane Sandy.

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:41 am

Blue River wrote:
drjohncarpenter wrote:It's pretty clear to all concerned that the conservative party is becoming irrelevant in the America of 2012...
Those who espouse the right-wing party line will need to seriously re-think who they are, and what they represent, if they are to attract new voters.

Yeah, whatever.

Classless, to the end. Be proud.

And enjoy four more years of the great President Barack H. Obama.

I will!

::rocks

Re: Election Predictions

Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:25 am

intheghetto wrote:
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Check this out . . .
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phpBB [video]



Class D felony? I remember when threats to the President, even somewhat vague threats, got people immediately hauled off! And she's just walking around, all fancy-free, saying a murder wouldn't bother her one bit. I have seen people, on Facebook, sort of dance around what they were thinking (saying it just wasn't tolerable), but she came right out and said it, to an audience of Facebook's billion users. What's to "investigate" exactly?

In some states a Class D Felony is the lowest felony class, while in New York it is the second lowest felony class, having harsher penalties than the Class E felony, but not as harsh as the Class C felony. Examples of Class D felony offenses include, falsely reporting and incident, prohibited use of a weapon, placing a false bomb in the first degree, unlawful surveillance, promoting an obscene sexual performance by a child, promoting a sexual performance by a child, criminal possession of weapon, criminal sale of a weapon in the third degree, criminal sale of a firearm with the aid of a minor, and manufacture, transport, disposition and defacement of weapons and dangerous instruments and appliances.


Well, at any rate, this is pretty clear: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/871 So why is she walking around?

(At least there was the poetic justice of the television report airing on a Fox station, after which the ice cream company she worked for, fired her. They do not have to keep on employees who publically bespoil their company image, as they have their own free speech rights. She can truly say, now, that she's NOT better off than she was 4 years ago!)

rjm
Last edited by rjm on Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.