Surprise! U.S. economy improving better than anyone expected

Surprise! U.S. economy improving better than anyone expected

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/ ... -expected/

It isn’t only the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics that is issuing surprisingly good news about the U.S. economy these days.

If former General Electric Co. Chief Executive Officer Jack Welch’s charges of a political fix to manipulate economic data ahead of the presidential election are true, there must be a vast econometric conspiracy embracing auto dealers, real estate agents, the Federal Reserve and corporate America’s 96-year-old Conference Board.

"These numbers are what they are, they’re not being slanted. On a scale of one to 10, the economy is at a fairly firm six and may be heading higher"

The economy is improving more than professional forecasters anticipated, particularly in data on employment and housing, according to the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, which compares 38 indicators with analysts’ predictions. The index, based on gauges compiled by private businesses and trade groups in addition to government, confirms U.S. growth is generating jobs in the face of a global slowdown and looming federal spending cuts and tax increases known as the fiscal cliff.

“The economy is improving, and the labour market is getting better,” said Robert Brusca, president of Fact & Opinion Economics and a former New York Fed economist. “These numbers are what they are, they’re not being slanted. On a scale of one to 10, the economy is at a fairly firm six and may be heading higher.”

President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney are each trying to convince voters ahead of the Nov. 6 election that they are best equipped to spur growth and accelerate hiring. Nonpartisan forecasters who have developed models to predict the outcome of elections disagree on how the economy will shape the results this time.

Rate Fell

An Oct. 5 report from the BLS showed the jobless rate fell in September to 7.8 percent, the lowest since Obama took office in January 2009, from 8.1 percent in August. The rate was forecast to rise to 8.2 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 88 economists.

“Unbelievable jobs numbers. . . these Chicago guys will do anything. . . can’t debate so change numbers,” Welch wrote in a Twitter message immediately after the report. Obama’s campaign is based in Chicago.

The BLS data also showed that employers added 114,000 workers to payrolls last month after a revised 142,000 gain in August. The September figure was in line with economists’ estimates for an increase of 115,000.

Gallup’s daily tracking of likely voters conducted Oct. 4 through Oct. 10 shows Obama with 47 percent and Romney with 48 percent support. The tracking is a rolling average of seven days of surveys with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Growing Number

The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, which compares indicators with analysts’ predictions, shows a growing number of those measures are exceeding expectations. The index climbed to minus 0.06 Friday from this year’s low of minus 0.42 at the end of July.

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index shows a more pronounced improvement. It jumped to 49.4 Friday from this year’s low of minus 65.3 on July 19. A positive reading suggests the economic releases have on balance been better than the Bloomberg consensus.

Among the indicators that have topped analysts’ forecasts: consumer confidence, car sales and purchases of existing homes.

Sales of previously owned houses, reported by the National Association of Realtors, rose 7.8% in August to a two- year high. Cars sold at a 14.9 million annual rate in September, the fastest pace since 2008, according to Ward’s Automotive Group.

‘Doing Better’

“The economy is doing better than people think,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Don’t count the consumer out yet.”

Among the headwinds to growth, Rupkey said, are the European debt crisis, a slowdown in China and the so-called fiscal cliff, more than $US600-billion of tax increases and spending cuts that will take effect early next year unless Congress acts to forestall them.

Americans are hearing less negative news about the economy, according to a survey by the Washington-based Pew Research Center for the People & the Press conducted Oct. 4-7.

Of 1,006 adults surveyed, the share of people hearing mostly bad news fell to 28% this month from 35% in September. The percentage hearing mostly bad news about the labor market fell 10 points to 42%. Most of the interviews were conducted after the Oct. 5 jobs report.

Better-than-forecast economic news, along with stock-market gains, helps explain recent increases in consumer confidence.

Sentiment Index

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment jumped in October to the highest level since September 2007, before the last recession began, a report today showed. The index rose to 83.1 from 78.3 the prior month. The gauge was projected to fall to 78, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index registered minus 38.5 in the week ended Oct. 7, close to the prior week’s reading of minus 36.9, which was the highest in three months.

“Many of these other groups reporting the numbers aren’t necessarily in President Obama’s camp,” said Steve Jarding, a professor of public policy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Massachusetts and a former Democratic consultant. “There’s no collusion out there. The realtors, the car dealers, their numbers aren’t trumped up.”

Welch, in a Wall Street Journal column this week, revisited his criticism of the jobs data.

“The coming election is too important to be decided on a number,” Welch wrote. “Especially when that number seems so wrong.”

Question Marks

“If I could write that tweet again, I would have added a few question marks at the end” in order to “make it clear I was raising a question,” he wrote. Still, he added, the dip in unemployment is “downright implausible.”

Since last September, the jobless rate has dropped 1.2 percentage points. The only election year in which unemployment fell more during the same period was Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, according to the government’s records.

Election forecasters’ economic models differ on this year’s outcome. Moody’s Analytics says its model shows Obama winning with 303 electoral votes, while Ray Fair of Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, says the race is simply “too close to call.”

Job Approval

At Emory University in Atlanta, Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor, has developed a model based on economic growth during the April-to-June quarter and presidential job approval in the Gallup Poll for the last three days of June. His model forecasts a 67% probability that Obama will be re-elected and projects a popular-vote victory margin of 1.2 percentage points.

Christopher Wlezien, a political science professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, said the direction of the economy is more important than any single number.

“This isn’t just one little piece of news, it’s a perception over time,” said Wlezien, co-author of the book “The Timeline of Presidential Elections.”

“This is a very close race,” he said. “We’re in a slightly good economy, so it’s a slight advantage for the president.”

That a person Jack Welch can get on television and make the accusation that he made with zero evidence is indicative of how low our discourse has sunk thanks to the corrosive influence of Fox News.

I just don't see it. Im in the southeast and I haven't seen the evidence of the economy recovering. I don't have any political ax to grind either. I just live in the real world and go to work everyday and I see so many people struggling. The biggest insult is when I hear the job market is improving and unemployment is dropping. The only reason the unemployment figure dropped is because people have ran out of benefits. They are no longer counted so it skews the number. The job market is crap. Most jobs that are created are just part time with no benefits. My best friend got laid off over a year ago as a senior machinist. He has gotten to the point he's trying to get a job putting bikes together at Toys R Us. The trouble is he's competing against 300 other guys wanting that job for $9 that will only last through the holiday. The days of going to the factory and making a live able wage are about gone. We don't manufacture any longer. I do think the auto industry is doing better. The housing market is not. It's still in the dump. Both parties have had their hands in this mess. The average guy is being taxed to death by state and federal government while those entities spend like there is no tomorrow. More than ever I feel like any sense of fiscal responsibity is out the window. I think Bush ranks near the bottom of our presidents and certainly contributed to our woes. Now we have Obama who I think is just digging the whole deeper. Obama wasn't the miracle man. Things have not gotten better

It's improved but definitely most people have yet to feel the improvement. Sadly in any economic recovery, jobs are the last thing to arrive because their creation depends on increase in demand and that takes a long time. The state governments whether they're over taxing or not have certainly contributed to the mess because while the feds have spent more, they've cut back on essential positions, so many gains in the private sector have been cut off by losses in the public sector.

As counter intuitive as it sounds, the government needs to invest more in valued infrastructure which will in turn spur across the board demand until the economy gets on its feet. The best thing about infrastructure is that those jobs must stay here and the second best thing is you get what you need. If you need a new bridge, you have a new bridge, the kind of change that helps spur business along.

It hasn't really been an issue in the campaign but the President (or God forbid) his successor should try and negotiate some "fair trade" agreements with our trading partners, deals that make sure other countries cannot steamroller over us with below US living standards labor costs. For all the whining that's done about industrial taxes the big reason countries move their factories to Third World countries is because their labor costs fall off the edge of the cliff. How do you compete with .29 cents per hour?

:smt015

You can do better than that BR!

You can do better than that BR!

Shhhhh... please hold it down, Paul, I need my beauty rest.
We have a big game against the San Francisco Giants tomorrow night.

You can do better than that BR!

Shhhhh... please hold it down, Paul, I need my beauty rest.
We have a big game against the San Francisco Giants tomorrow night.

Damn you baseball. I want my hockey back!

"the corrosive influence of Fox News".

Ha! You would so like to silence any voice with an alternative point of view wouldn't you? But in a free country someone needs to present a counterpoint to the almost entire mainstream media that is so in Obama's pocket. Or would you prefer the populace be brainwashed with only a politically leftist point of view? Why am i even asking? Of course you would.

"the corrosive influence of Fox News".

Ha! You would so like to silence any voice with an alternative point of view wouldn't you? But in a free country someone needs to present a counterpoint to the almost entire mainstream media that is so in Obama's pocket. Or would you prefer the populace be brainwashed with only a politically leftist point of view? Why am i even asking? Of course you would.

It's amazing! Good post!!

Surprise alright - October surprise!

This was predicted back early in the year - that the unemployment rate would miraculously drop below 8% right before the election. Not because the economy was getting better but because no president has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 8%.

So it's at what - 7.8%? It's where it was when Obama took office! And that's after spending a trillion dollars through stimulus with the promise from the Obama administration that it wouldn't go above 8% - which it did!

likethebike wrote:

As counter intuitive as it sounds, the government needs to invest more...

Keynesian economics doesn't work - never has - never will! The government can't "invest" anything without first taking it from someone else. The money the government "invests" has to first come OUT OF the economy or it must be printed.

Only the private sector can grow the economy - not the government.


The real unemployment number is the U-6 number. The U-6 number as described by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

RKS

Surprise alright - October surprise!

This was predicted back early in the year - that the unemployment rate would miraculously drop below 8% right before the election. Not because the economy was getting better but because no president has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 8%.

So it's at what - 7.8%? It's where it was when Obama took office! And that's after spending a trillion dollars through stimulus with the promise from the Obama administration that it wouldn't go above 8% - which it did!

likethebike wrote:

As counter intuitive as it sounds, the government needs to invest more...

Keynesian economics doesn't work - never has - never will! The government can't "invest" anything without first taking it from someone else. The money the government "invests" has to first come OUT OF the economy or it must be printed.

Only the private sector can grow the economy - not the government.


The real unemployment number is the U-6 number. The U-6 number as described by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

RKS

As stated in a post that no longer exists from the other thread, these figures can only show how well a country is doing if they are held up against comparable figures from other countries. America is doing considerably better than much of Europe, both with regards to the percentage of people in work and the growth in the economy.

To put it another way, your figures would show that Obama was doing well if, say, unemployment figures had fallen by 10% while he was in office. However, if you put that against other figures from around the world that showed that in most developed countries unemployment had fallen during the same period by 40% it would show a very different picture, wouldn't it? But you would be blissfully ignorant because you're not interested in comparing US figures with those from other countries.

poormadpeter wrote:

As stated in a post that no longer exists from the other thread, these figures can only show how well a country is doing if they are held up against comparable figures from other countries. America is doing considerably better than much of Europe, both with regards to the percentage of people in work and the growth in the economy.

To put it another way, your figures would show that Obama was doing well if, say, unemployment figures had fallen by 10% while he was in office. However, if you put that against other figures from around the world that showed that in most developed countries unemployment had fallen during the same period by 40% it would show a very different picture, wouldn't it? But you would be blissfully ignorant because you're not interested in comparing US figures with those from other countries.

You can't be serious. So basically - the U.S. is doing well compared to other countries - correct? How rediculous! That's like saying Americans shouldn't complain about our current $4 per gallon gas because the rest of the world is paying $8! What load of bull****.
We don't have to compare ourselves to anyone.


The bottom line is that Obama has the U.S. on the path to economic destruction just like Europe. We don't want to be like Europe! We don't want the European solcialist model tried in America.


We don't have a 1 world government (yet anyway) like Obama and the leftists would like, but that is the direction he (they) are taking us.



What will fix this economic problem is the same thing that has fixed every other economic problem over the past 200+ years in America - Capitalism! Get the government out of the way and restore the founding principles as described in the U.S. Constitution.




RKS

poormadpeter wrote:

As stated in a post that no longer exists from the other thread, these figures can only show how well a country is doing if they are held up against comparable figures from other countries. America is doing considerably better than much of Europe, both with regards to the percentage of people in work and the growth in the economy.

To put it another way, your figures would show that Obama was doing well if, say, unemployment figures had fallen by 10% while he was in office. However, if you put that against other figures from around the world that showed that in most developed countries unemployment had fallen during the same period by 40% it would show a very different picture, wouldn't it? But you would be blissfully ignorant because you're not interested in comparing US figures with those from other countries.

You can't be serious. So basically - the U.S. is doing well compared to other countries - correct? How rediculous! That's like saying Americans shouldn't complain about our current $4 per gallon gas because the rest of the world is paying $8! What load of bull****.
We don't have to compare ourselves to anyone.


The bottom line is that Obama has the U.S. on the path to economic destruction just like Europe. We don't want to be like Europe! We don't want the European solcialist model tried in America.


We don't have a 1 world government (yet anyway) like Obama and the leftists would like, but that is the direction he (they) are taking us.



What will fix this economic problem is the same thing that has fixed every other economic problem over the past 200+ years in America - Capitalism! Get the government out of the way and restore the founding principles as described in the U.S. Constitution.




RKS

What a bunch of malarkey RKS

"the corrosive influence of Fox News".

Ha! You would so like to silence any voice with an alternative point of view wouldn't you? But in a free country someone needs to present a counterpoint to the almost entire mainstream media that is so in Obama's pocket. Or would you prefer the populace be brainwashed with only a politically leftist point of view? Why am i even asking? Of course you would.

Fox should be free to spew any kind of drivel it wants. That doesn't we have to pay attention. In days before Fox News no one could ever make a mainstream news show with an allegation that someone fixed some figures without any inside insight (I.E. They were there and saw it.) or evidence. What Welch went on the air with was not news, nor was it any kind of counterpoint to an opinion, it was simply drivel based upon nothing in reality. The Constitution grants him the right to spew drivel, but it does not mandate that we listen. The corrosive influence of Fox News is that drivel has come to be taken far too seriously.

RKS Nashville- I'm assuming you were born in the 20th century. In the mid to late 20th century nearly every free industrialized government in the Western World employed Keynesian economics which resulted in the greatest expansion of wealth in the history of the world. "We're all Keynesian's now" Richard Nixon who at the time was responding to something that never bothers today's Republican party- actual evidence.

RKS Nashville- I'm assuming you were born in the 20th century. In the mid to late 20th century nearly every free industrialized government in the Western World employed Keynesian economics which resulted in the greatest expansion of wealth in the history of the world.

Factually untrue.



RKS

poormadpeter wrote:

As stated in a post that no longer exists from the other thread, these figures can only show how well a country is doing if they are held up against comparable figures from other countries. America is doing considerably better than much of Europe, both with regards to the percentage of people in work and the growth in the economy.

To put it another way, your figures would show that Obama was doing well if, say, unemployment figures had fallen by 10% while he was in office. However, if you put that against other figures from around the world that showed that in most developed countries unemployment had fallen during the same period by 40% it would show a very different picture, wouldn't it? But you would be blissfully ignorant because you're not interested in comparing US figures with those from other countries.

You can't be serious. So basically - the U.S. is doing well compared to other countries - correct? How rediculous! That's like saying Americans shouldn't complain about our current $4 per gallon gas because the rest of the world is paying $8! What load of bull****.
We don't have to compare ourselves to anyone.


The bottom line is that Obama has the U.S. on the path to economic destruction just like Europe. We don't want to be like Europe! We don't want the European solcialist model tried in America.


We don't have a 1 world government (yet anyway) like Obama and the leftists would like, but that is the direction he (they) are taking us.



What will fix this economic problem is the same thing that has fixed every other economic problem over the past 200+ years in America - Capitalism! Get the government out of the way and restore the founding principles as described in the U.S. Constitution.




RKS

With the rest of the world struggling economically, the USA can not expect to blossom. If foreign countries are not buying your goods because of the tightening of their purse-strings, then your businesses struggle or fail, more people become unemployed, less money is generated.

Do you really think the USA exists in a vacuum?

RKS Nashville- I'm assuming you were born in the 20th century. In the mid to late 20th century nearly every free industrialized government in the Western World employed Keynesian economics which resulted in the greatest expansion of wealth in the history of the world.

Factually untrue.



RKS

Have you read a book about the Twentieth Century? Hell, did you live then? Your Fox News buddies are always praising what a great time the '50s were and that's because of Keynesian economics. GI Bill- Keynesian. National highway plan- Keynesian. Low interest loans to GIs to buy housing- Keynesian. Marshall Plan- Keynesian.

The only people that don't know this are in the tunnel right wing wackos. For everyone else it's settled history.

No Surprise!

The kool-aid drinking Repub-o-bots still find a reason to hate Obama. Any accomplishment will be immediately shot down by them because they can't stand that there's actually progress under his administration. Insecure lot ideed.

If Obama tracked down Osama Bin Laden and killed him, the 'bots would still hate him. Oh right..he did do that! See what I mean?

What will fix this economic problem is the same thing that has fixed every other economic problem over the past 200+ years in America - Capitalism! Get the government out of the way and restore the founding principles as described in the U.S. Constitution.

RKS

Which 'founding principles' would you happen to be talking about? Where in the founding principles of the US Constitution does it say anything about capitalism? Since the founding principles are actually based on law and governing how would capitalism 'restore' them? What in the world are you talking about? Have you actually read them, or do you just see them on conservative campaign buses? Also how can capitalism fix an economic problem when we already LIVE in a capitalist society? If there's one thing we can probably all agree upon is that we like capitalism or the 'free-market'. So please tell me, since you imply that capitalism is gone then what kind of system do we live under? It's because of those taking advantage of the capitalist system that we went through an economic mess. So please before you do any heavy hitting political references, you might want to do your homework and read a book or two. In fact, you don't even have to get up and go to your bookshelf you can look it right up on your 'internets'.

Last edited by intheghetto on Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:43 am, edited 4 times in total.

No Surprise!

The kool-aid drinking Repub-o-bots still find a reason to hate Obama. Any accomplishment will be immediately shot down by them because they can't stand that there's actually progress under his administration. Insecure lot ideed.

If Obama tracked down Osama Bin Laden and killed him, the 'bots would still hate him. Oh right..he did do that! See what I mean?

It's not just that they can't stand to admit progress Obama but they want to make him a failure. Mitch McConnell said as much.

intheghetto wrote:

Which 'founding principles' would you happen to be talking about?

Those enumerated in the U.S. Constitution - read it here: http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charte ... cript.html

Where in the founding principles of the US Constitution does it say anything about capitalism?

I never said it was. I said the solution to our problems is, as has always been, capitalism and the free markets. We should always follow the Constitution and if we did the Federal Government would not being doing much of what it is doing today.

Since the founding principles are actually based on law and governing how would capitalism 'restore' them? What in the world are you talking about?

If we followed the U.S. Constitution, the Law of the land, as I stated above, the Federal Government would never be able to do what it currently does. The government should only do what it has authority to do as stated in the Constitution - read the 10th Amendment. Thus the "free market" (capitalism) would do what the government has no authority to do.

The U.S. Constitution LIMITS the Federal Government - Not empower it.

It gives the power to the States, i.e. the people.

Have you actually read them, or do you just see them on conservative campaign buses?

The question is: Have you read the U.S. Constitution? Because if you had, you could not possibly be in favor of Obama and his big government agenda.

Also how can capitalism fix an economic problem when we already LIVE in a capitalist society?

While we do live in a "free market" society, when government gets too involved, too big, with too much taxation, spending, and regulation - is it really a "free market" anymore? When the government chooses winners and losers (Solyndra comes to mind), we cease to have a free market.

If there's one thing we can probably all agree upon is that we like capitalism or the 'free-market'.

Sooo, you're NOT voting for Obama then, correct?

So please tell me, since you imply that capitalism is gone then what kind of system do we live under? It's because of those taking advantage of the capitalist system that we went through an economic mess.

As stated above, Capitalism isn't "gone" as you describe, but it has been handcuffed - by the Federal Government. There will always be those who try to "take advantage" of the system and there are laws on the books to punish them. But that doesn't mean you throw out the baby with bath water. That doesn't mean we scrap what has worked for a couple of hundred years because of a few bad people.

There are many reasons for the economic mess and both political parties share in the balme as well as some so-called "capitalists".

So please before you do any heavy hitting political references, you might want to do your homework and read a book or two. In fact, you don't even have to get up and go to your bookshelf you can look it right up on your 'internets'.

I'll just read my pocket version of the U.S. Constitution - maybe the lawmakers in Washington should do the same since they did take an oath to uphold and defend it.


There, I've answered all your disingenuous questions - now go read your U.S. Constitution or better yet go here: http://constitution.hillsdale.edu/ --- It's a free online U.S. Constitution course.




likethebike wrote:

It's not just that they can't stand to admit progress Obama but they want to make him a failure. Mitch McConnell said as much.

Progress? Really? I've already proven in this thread and the previous thread that there has NOT been progress in the economy - the numbers show it plain as day. The American people are living it everyday.


In case you missed it:

254690_376625715747186_1942115311_n.jpg

Mitch McConnell, the Republicans, or whoever didn't cause Obama to fail - OBAMA and his policies caused Obama to fail. The American people are not stupid and know who the real cause of the continued problems really is and they will vote that problem out on November 6.



RKS

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

intheghetto wrote:

Which 'founding principles' would you happen to be talking about?

Those enumerated in the U.S. Constitution - read it here: http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charte ... cript.html

Where in the founding principles of the US Constitution does it say anything about capitalism?

I never said it was. I said the solution to our problems is, as has always been, capitalism and the free markets. We should always follow the Constitution and if we did the Federal Government would not being doing much of what it is doing today.

Since the founding principles are actually based on law and governing how would capitalism 'restore' them? What in the world are you talking about?

If we followed the U.S. Constitution, the Law of the land, as I stated above, the Federal Government would never be able to do what it currently does. The government should only do what it has authority to do as stated in the Constitution - read the 10th Amendment. Thus the "free market" (capitalism) would do what the government has no authority to do.

The U.S. Constitution LIMITS the Federal Government - Not empower it.

It gives the power to the States, i.e. the people.

Have you actually read them, or do you just see them on conservative campaign buses?

The question is: Have you read the U.S. Constitution? Because if you had, you could not possibly be in favor of Obama and his big government agenda.

Also how can capitalism fix an economic problem when we already LIVE in a capitalist society?

While we do live in a "free market" society, when government gets too involved, too big, with too much taxation, spending, and regulation - is it really a "free market" anymore? When the government chooses winners and losers (Solyndra comes to mind), we cease to have a free market.

If there's one thing we can probably all agree upon is that we like capitalism or the 'free-market'.

Sooo, you're NOT voting for Obama then, correct?

So please tell me, since you imply that capitalism is gone then what kind of system do we live under? It's because of those taking advantage of the capitalist system that we went through an economic mess.

As stated above, Capitalism isn't "gone" as you describe, but it has been handcuffed - by the Federal Government. There will always be those who try to "take advantage" of the system and there are laws on the books to punish them. But that doesn't mean you throw out the baby with bath water. That doesn't mean we scrap what has worked for a couple of hundred years because of a few bad people.

There are many reasons for the economic mess and both political parties share in the balme as well as some so-called "capitalists".

So please before you do any heavy hitting political references, you might want to do your homework and read a book or two. In fact, you don't even have to get up and go to your bookshelf you can look it right up on your 'internets'.

I'll just read my pocket version of the U.S. Constitution - maybe the lawmakers in Washington should do the same since they did take an oath to uphold and defend it.


There, I've answered all your disingenuous questions - now go read your U.S. Constitution or better yet go here: http://constitution.hillsdale.edu/ --- It's a free online U.S. Constitution course.




likethebike wrote:

It's not just that they can't stand to admit progress Obama but they want to make him a failure. Mitch McConnell said as much.

Progress? Really? I've already proven in this thread and the previous thread that there has NOT been progress in the economy - the numbers show it plain as day. The American people are living it everyday.


In case you missed it:

254690_376625715747186_1942115311_n.jpg

Mitch McConnell, the Republicans, or whoever didn't cause Obama to fail - OBAMA and his policies caused Obama to fail. The American people are not stupid and know who the real cause of the continued problems really is and they will vote that problem out on November 6.



RKS

You have stated previously that America should not judge its current position on the world economy and events outside America. Bearing that in mind I would like to ask you the following questions about your table of numbers.

1.) The unemployment figures have gone up 39,000 - that's less that 1%. The rest of the world (and America) is suffering from an economic depression, and some European countries close to bankruptcy. Bearing this in mind, less of your goods are being exported because people in general are not buying. This means less money is reaching US companies. Bearing this in mind, is not the minute figure of 39,000 actually one hell of an achivement?

2.) You state that the figures are true and not skewed, and yet the table is. There are four rows dedicated to unemployment, plus one dedicated to food stamps, whereas 1 row would tell the picture adequately; the same information is basically being shown five times. The federal debt and debt per person figures are always going to be linked, it is simply another way of showing the same information twice. And yet, there is no room on that table to show that the US economy is growing faster than most out developed nations? Odd that. Don't you think it's strange that, where it was possible to show something positive happening in the USA that is left off the figures? And does this not show that the table in question is designed to show one (republican) viewpoint of what is happening in the States over the last four years?

3.) The table includes a figure regarding gas price increases? Considering that the gas price increases are essentially being caused by the huge companies that sell the gas to the gas companies in America, how exactly would you expect these increases to be prevented by a government?

The Constitution says nothing about capitalism. Capitalism by the way is not a religion it's an economic footprint based upon the general idea that allowing people to cater to their self-interests is the most efficient engine for sustained economic growth. Unrestrained, it leads to all kinds of problems like monopolies, fraud boom and busts cycles. Many would rightfully argue that the sort of pure capitalism that the Randians keep crying about actually came to abject failure in the Great Depression. And it was Keynesian economics that led the way out.

The Constitution, by the way, gives the federal government the authority to regulate interstate commerce which in today's world is almost all commerce. Plus, it gives the government the power of taxation and there is no provision limiting what that money is spent upon.

Part of the reason the financial crisis took place was because although were certain laws on the books that the Bush administration was not interested in enforcing, many new transgressions had come up during the late 1990s and 2000s where there were no laws to regulate them (I.E. the derivatives market) and as a result there was rampant fraud and abuse that caused the economy to collapse. Further, the free marketeers had convinced government to recall many Depression era laws like Glass/Steagall which kept a firewall between investment banks and commercial banks that helped lead to crisis. This financial crisis was caused by letting the market get too free. Even free market guru Alan Greenspan admitted as much in testimony to congress.

As Peter pointed out the States are doing better than the rest of the world. Part of that, of course, is that the US has thus far avoided the austerity measures that have caused a double dip in the European recession. Not bothering with evidence, the Republicans, of course, would like to bring the same failed strategies to the US. Not that the Republicans really care about the country as a whole. If the top tip of one percent is doing well, then that's just fine and dandy where they're concerned.

I didn't say Obama failed. I said Mitch McConnell tried to make him fail and against those odds it appears that Obama has succeeded. Not as wildly as he could have in a more sympathetic environment, but he has succeeded. 800,000 jobs per month. You keep that rate and you have a depression. There was no depression. The economy is now even adding jobs, not as robustly as it could, or as it would in good times but it's adding them.

Again, it needs to reiterated and reiterated. This was not a mere cyclical economic downturn. This was a complete global economic collapse the likes of which we haven't seen since 1929. In the US alone, something like $2.9 trillion in wealth vanished in two days in the fall of 2008. It went poof out of the air, it was gone. That's about a quarter of the debt gone in two days, not spent anything just gone. This was not the recession of 1982 or 1992, this was a threat to the entire liquidity of the world financial system.

That's the honest basis on which to judge this recovery. By those standards, it's not bad.

poormadpeter,

The U.S. employment growing at an anemic 39,000 jobs is horrible. It can and has been so much better during other economic downturns (recessions).


At the same point during the Reagan recovery, the economy had created more than 9.5 million new jobs. Also, in just one month during the Reagan economic recovery boom, September, 1983, the economy created 1.1 million new jobs. That’s a real recovery.

Since Obama stepped into office, 7.5 million people have left the workforce.

Since Obama took office, we've had 42 months of unemployment over 8%, the longest period of unemployment that high since the Great Depression. While Obama promised us when he wanted to pass his nearly $1 trillion wasteful government spending stimulus that unemployment would never climb above 8%. it has never fallen below 8% - until miraculously in September 2012 - as Gomer Pyle would say SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE!!


You mention 'tables' - I've posted 2 different ones. The one above shows the real numbers during Obama's term and reflect how his policies have not improved the U.S. economy. and another table is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - a government agency.

Considering that the gas price increases are essentially being caused by the huge companies that sell the gas to the gas companies in America, how exactly would you expect these increases to be prevented by a government?

Actually, we buy oil which then gets refined into gas. We can be energy independant - meaning we wouldn't have to buy oil from the middle East or anywhere else in the world. The U.S. has the resourses here to be energy independant if companies we're allowed through drilling, coal-mining, fracking, and shale.The Obama administration is beholdant to wacko environmental groups so this won't happen. Wind and solar maybe in the future - way in the future. We need energy NOW.




RKS